ECO Transit must understand the trends shaping the future of the region if it is to grow, adapt and create an outstanding transportation system. Three experts in the fields of planning and economic development offer diverse, interdisciplinary perspectives of the future of Eagle County. 

Global Influences
Don Cohen, Executive Director, Economic Council of Eagle County 

Over the next 12-15 years, the second home industry will exert a significant influence on Eagle County.  The region is becoming one of the most desirable places in the nation for second homes, particularly for the baby-boom generation, the largest and wealthiest generation in world history. Approximately 79 million baby boomers will pass the age 55-64 age group over the next twenty years.  As empty nesters with wealth and free time, this cohort will be seeking second homes in the mountains. Demand for second homes, however, extends beyond the United States. The world-renowned ski resorts of Vail and Beaver Creek Vail, both located within Eagle County, are attracting interest from wealthy people internationally who wish to invest in second home property.

This overwhelming demand for mountain property is escalating the cost of housing and real estate, and forcing middle and lower class workers to seek housing elsewhere; while simultaneously generating service-level jobs for second-home construction, maintenance and other services. The second home industry is the leading job-generator in Eagle County. As the industry grows, Eagle County will the leading job generator in the region.

Eagle County will also be the region’s leading importer of labor. The jobs-housing imbalance will create a labor deficit of over 30,000 workers by 2030. Eagle County will be forced to compete with communities throughout the region for workers. As road congestion and fuel prices rise and other communities develop their own economies, Eagle County may find it more difficult to attract workers from far away. 

Managing and Directing Growth for 2030
Cliff Simonton, Senior Planner, Eagle County 

Eagle County is blessed with incredible natural beauty, a favorable climate, and numerous recreational amenities. As the United States grows in population over the next twenty five years, the population demands on Eagle County will be particularly acute. This demand may be tempered (or exacerbated) by lack of private land, geographic restrictions, and regulations on land development.

Eagle County currently has 12,000 approved but not built single family homes, of which 1,000 are targeted for attainable housing. If large private parcels subdivide to 35 acre “use by right” development, there could be another 4,000 dwellings built, for a total of 16,000 units. Although 35 acre development may be the path of least resistance and may restrict population growth, Eagle County envisions an alternative development concept to reduce infrastructure costs, reduce reliance on automobiles, provide greater opportunity for affordable housing, and preserve precious open space.

Eagle County adopted a Comprehensive Plan in 2005. The overriding theme of the plan is to manage growth to better assure future sustainability and access by residents and visitors to a high quality lifestyle. Sustainability is defined as a “healthy balance of economic success, social well being, and preservation of the environment.” 

The plan encourages mixed-use, high-density development within community centers, and the preservation of generally undeveloped “open corridors” between community centers. A key goal of the plan is reduced reliance on personal vehicles. Consequently, the plan promotes mass transit and transit-oriented development designed to be accessed by multiple modes of transportation. Managing growth with these strategies will require a change in the “mountain living” mindset.

Transportation Forecasts and Impacts
Charles Buck, Felsburg, Holt & Ullevig  

Between 2000 and 2030 Eagle County will grow a projected 108 percent, to over 86,000 people.  During the same time period, vehicle trips will nearly triple. Charles Buck discusses costs and impacts of increasing traffic on Eagle County infrastructure. Between now and 2025, Eagle County estimates that it must devote $243 million to address existing and future deficiencies in the road network. Uncertainties in state funding options force local governments to assume more of the cost.